Potential and Challenges of Hydrogen Energy in Developed and Some Developing Countries in 2050 and How to Overcome The Challenges
INTRODUCTION
To have an environmentally friendly society, safe and reliable energy is vital for sustainable development. The continued growth in energy demand results from population increase and extensive growth in economic development, which places increased pressure on demand for fossil fuels which in return results in resource depletion and greenhouse gas emissions. Such challenges have contributed to the Universal transition trend from environmental pollutant sources of energy to renewable energy. In this regard, hydrogen has received recognition globally as an emerging energy source due to its numerous advantages. As opposed to synthetic carbon-based fuels, hydrogen is carbon neutral and is the easiest and cleanest fuel. Furthermore, hydrogen can be electrolyzed from water, and it only produces water. This close cycle makes hydrogen an inexhaustible source. Other advantages of hydrogen include it being safely transported over long distances, storing it for a long time, and being used in many sectors of the economy (Veziroglu & Sahi, 2008).
However, as the universe seems to start focusing on hydrogen as the sole source of energy, potential challenges might deter efficient development towards this new way of life. At the same time, it is also important to identify potential opportunities along the way that might benefit greatly from embracing hydrogen as a source of energy. Therefore, this paper will provide an analysis of potential and challenges of hydrogen commercial scale deployment associated with hydrogen production, potential and challenges of hydrogen storage, distribution,transportation and storage by 2050.
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
This research study analyzes potential and challenges of hydrogen commercial scale deployment associated with hydrogen production, potential and challenges of hydrogen storage, distribution,transportation and storage by 2050.
. The goal is to discover what the future of hydrogen energy will look like in 2050. Through understanding the opportunities and challenges associated with hydrogen presented in various sources across the globe, this study proposes better strategies that can be used to make hydrogen energy an efficient and favorable source of energy in 2050.
Data relied upon and presented in this research is qualitative. This was a qualitative study, and secondary data was relied upon for information. We did not interact directly with participants or respondents by using secondary data. Articles and research studies on hydrogen energy presented by other authors were relied upon for the study and they were specifically used for gathering information on estimated global hydrogen demand by 2050.
The paper is subdivided into three main sections; data collection and analysis; Discussion ; Recommendation and Conclusion In the data collection section, reports and information retrieved from different sources are presented in an orderly manner. This section provides global estimates of hydrogen demand across the globe. Netherlands, China, and Australia are used in this research to represent global hydrogen energy demand. The Netherlands is ranked at the top of the European hydrogen race (Energy Monitor, 2022); China is ranked as the world largest energy consumer and has tremendous demand for hydrogen (Jia et al, 2022), and Australia is estimated to become the global leader in the production of affordable and clean hydrogen (Walsh et al, 2021). However, more information is provided concerning strategies being implemented by other countries to achieve effective hydrogen use within the paper. Based on the data presented in the data collection section, the discussion part provides an in-depth analysis of the future of hydrogen. The recommendation and conclusion section breaks everything discussed in the paper into digestible chunks.
DATA COLLECTION
This section provides estimations for hydrogen energy demand in the Netherlands, China, and Australia in various sectors of the economy.
Forecasting Hydrogen Energy demand in the Netherlands by 2050
In 2019 , the Netherlands put forth the objective to lessen ozone-depleting substance emanation by 95% in 2050 contrasted with 1990 (Rijksoverheid, 2019). The Netherlands is known for its cycle industry, topographical area, and involvement in the gaseous petrol framework. Those three components offer an open door with hydrogen to begin progress towards a spotless tech industry and to make an informed position. Many examinations have been directed on the capability of hydrogen by 2050 (Table 1). For this study we make use of data provided by Visman ( 2019) to analyze the roadmaps to a hydrogen future in Dutch Republic.
Table 1 Diffrent examinations on the capability of hydrogen as presented by various authors
The choice concentrates on the center of Europe, the Netherlands, or districts of the Netherlands. The reports used for the quantitative examination are Berenschot, European Commission, FCH, and Gasunie and Tennet Scenario. The last energy requests for every situation in the Netherlands are displayed in Figure 1. The precited last energy interest in PJ by 2050 is contrasted with the last energy interest of 2015. It is observable that all reports expect a diminishing inconclusive energy interest. Moreover, the interest in hydrogen is contrasted with the last energy request per situation. The European Scenarios, European Commission and, not entirely set in stone for the Netherlands (Visman, 2019). The interest in hydrogen differs firmly.
Figure 1: :Nethrland’s 2050 estimated final energy demand with share of hydrogen . ( Visman, 2019)
The portion of hydrogen contrasted with the last energy request is displayed in Figure 2
Whenever areas are thought of, four principle areas for hydrogen have been distinguished as displayed in Figure 3, example, constructed climate, industry, versatility, and power adjusting. The interest for hydrogen in constructed climate is particularly found in the situations EC H2, FCH AMB, G&T public, and G&T global. The G&T nearby shows a generally lower interest for hydrogen in the Netherlands, because of more grounded proficiency estimates where the all-out interest of energy in fabricated climate is more modest. Figure 1 shows a comparative outcome for G&T nearby where the complete last energy request is lower than the other two G&T situations. In the EC COMBO and 1.5 situations, where different arrangements and energy transporters are joined to an ideal energy framework, hydrogen assumes a part in the constructed climate, but not as much as hydrogen focussed situations.
Figure 2: Netherland’s share of hydrogen final energy demand the in 2050 (Visman, 2019)
Figure 3: : per sector hydrogen demand ( Visman, 2019)
The biggest potential for hydrogen is seen in the industry. Particularly the Berenschot situations foresee high hydrogen requests in industry. The EC P2X situation shows next to no interest for hydrogen in industry, because of different fills/gasses that will assume a part in the decarbonization of industry. The EC COMBO and 1.5 do foresee more hydrogen in the industry as a result of the mix of zap, P-t-X, and hydrogen. In each of the three G&T situations, hydrogen assumes a part in industry, with a more modest interest for G&T global. Portability shows the second biggest potential for hydrogen in many situations. The Berenschot particle situation shows the biggest potential for hydrogen, while the electron situation shows less because of the bigger jolt of the vehicle area. The second most noteworthy is the FCH AMB situation where hydrogen in transport assumes a significant part. The G&T situations public and worldwide show a similar interest for hydrogen, while G&T nearby has a more modest interest because of 100 percent charge of traveler transport. The EC 1.5 and EC H2 have comparable results as G&T public for the vehicle area, with likewise a mix of charge, hydrogen, and other green energies for transport. Hydrogen for power adjusting varies through situations. While it very well may be normal that the interest for power adjusting is bigger in charge situations, frequently the hydrogen situations show bigger interest for hydrogen in power adjusting (Berenschot electrons and EC ELEC versus Berenschot particles and EC H2). In the joined situations of EC, COMBO, and 1.5 a little 15 PJ is normal for power adjusting. No numbers are supplied for power adjusting in the G&T situations. However, electrolysis limit is worked for Power-to-hydrogen and hydrogen-terminated power plants are built shifting between 1-4 GW limit.
Forecasting hydrogen demand in China by 2050
Lately, in China, 33% of hydrogen is used to be in oil refining, just as 27% utilized for alkali and 10% for only methanol as displayed in figure 4. Hydrogen currently is essentially utilized as a moderate item or unrefined substance of compound combination. Over 80% of hydrogen is utilized for the creation of engineered alkali. How much hydrogen is utilized in the petrol refining industry is now second just to engineered alkali, which represents over 10% of the absolute hydrogen request (Bai, 2003). As indicated by hydrogen energy belonging to China and the power module industry that is the white paper of 2020, China’s yearly interest in hydrogen will increment to around 130 million tons in 2060 which had also an improvement in hydrogen cars. While significant amounts of hydrogen are presently utilized in industry, this is essentially made utilizing petroleum products with high CO2 emanations ( Mohammsdi & Mehrpooya, 2018).
Figure 4: The 1975 to 2018 global hydrogen demand (International Energy Agency , 2019)
As of now, the exploration led to the anticipating of hydrogen requests connected with this work predominantly includes three viewpoints: First, the determining of China’s yearly hydrogen interest. Fully backed by the arrangements, the advancement of hydrogen energy innovation, and the development of the populace and the large-scale economy, it is important to find the utilization capability of hydrogen energy constantly in 2030. (Huang et al, 2022)
Estimations of hydrogen demand in Australia by 2050
Based on the data presented by the Australian Government ( 2021), As to the worldwide hydrogen interest, four situations have been thought about until 2050 (1) a no-development situation (flow creation); (2) a base case situation that addresses the latest thing (flow development), and no sensational changes are accepted, and the base year is 2019, while 2020 has been avoided, because of drops sought after during the worldwide pandemic (COVID 19); (3) normal development, in light of normal development in the course of the most recent decade; (4) most ideal situation expects that hydrogen will be the fuel of decision for network electrical stock as a back-up limit (20% of all-out energy interest); weighty and significant distance transport (20% of complete energy interest); energy-serious assembling area (20% of all-out energy interest); smelling salts creation (41 MtH in 2019). These areas have been chosen, as hydrogen can assume an indispensable part in them. The information has been separated from [66]. Figure 9 shows the expected worldwide interest for hydrogen for the four situations. Figure 10 shows the potential hydrogen interest in the Australian setting contrasted with the worldwide interest in the four situations
Figure 5: Hydrogen global demand potential for the four scenarios. (Yusaf et al, 2022)
Figure 6:a comparison of the four scenario global demand and the australian context potential for hydrogen demand. ( Yusaf et al, 2022)
Forecasting hydrogen Energy Demand in other Regions
Recently, researchers have stood out enough to be noticed in the anticipated examination of hydrogen energy cars. Wang (2011), presents a broad balance (CGE) model was planned to dig deeply on a vehicle portfolio situation in California from the year 2010 to 2030 . The creators assessed the macroeconomic effects of California’s increased vehicle situation on the state’s economy. The results showed that traditional cars are expected to outnumber the on-street armada, and gas will be the primary delivery fuel for the next twenty years. As shown in figure 7
Figure 7:Projected Vehicle sales in the portfolio scenario [ICEV represent Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles), PHEV represent Plug- in hybrid electric vehicle), BEV represent Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV), FCfuel cell vehicles (FCV] (Wang, 2011)
Nonetheless, hydrogen can act on an undeniably important duty in gas removal. Sang et al (2011) developed an estimation model for hydrogen power module vehicles depending on the combined Bass distribution model and a reproduction design utilizing SD. The improved model thus predicts that penetration of fuel cell technology in Korea might be increased by 12 years when weighed to the United States as shown in figure 8
Figure 8: forecasting sales share of HFCV (%) in USA, Korea and Japan by 2050 (Sang et al ,2011)
Shafiei et al (2017) proposed an SD framework of Iceland’s transport and energy frameworks. The model simulated hydrocarbons and power improvement pathways intending to create a carbon-free transportation area. Results are presented of different transition pathways for the total fuel demand in the sector of road transport as shown in figure 9. This results portray a very deep reduction in overall need for fuel leading to an increased fuel economy of electric powertrains. However, diesel fuel still takes 40% of total fuel demand by 2050 as a result of PHEV technology utilization.
Figure 9:Road transport’s forecasted fuel demand (Shafiei et al 2017)
DISCUSSION
Based on the analysis above on hydrogen energy 2050 forecasts in various regions and economic sections , we provide an in- depth discussion of the possible potentials and challenges in the hydrogen energy sector by 2050. We also provide possible solutions to some of the challenges.
Potential and challenges and solutions to challenges
Hydrogen storage
Storing hydrogen is among the most important issues that need a better solution to ensure the reach for a technically and economically functional hydrogen system for fuel is established. It will be hard to achieve a better hydrogen economy without better and more effective storage systems. In the past five years, there has been good progress in developing vehicles propelled by hydrogen. Integration of vehicles and the propulsion system has taken a bigger part of the development efforts. Currently, there is an agreement concerning the automotive industry requiring the storage of onboard hydrogen to be among the most important bottleneck technologies for developing future car fleets technologies. The density of storage of the liquid and compressed hydrogen has reached the required physical limits, but there is more capability in the material development necessary to store the hydrogen as a solid. The systems involve metal hydrides.
The Electricity Sector and Hydrogen
Should hydrogen generation require integration into the energy system, there should be an approach of more holistic views in the application to the electricity sector interaction. Together with the option of using electrolyzers to produce hydrogen, direct links between the power sector and hydrogen should be availed. It involves the stiff posing competition on renewable energies to reduce dependency on fossil fuels. To ensure the success of the option of reduced fossil fuels, its best to increase the production of hydrogen and increase security in its supply. It is further possible to use hydrogen as a medium for storing electricity from renewable sources like wind power. Co-producing hydrogen and electricity could develop further in the long run for IGCC with CCS plants. The role of renewable energies could face progressive competition because of the availability of feedstock to generate electricity, fuel production, and use of biomass for food production. The new sources of renewable energy can reduce emissions of CO2 in large percentages if they can reduce the production of power to replace the grid-mix electricity. It is better than if used to produce vehicle fuels, including other renewable fuels or hydrogen. The use of energy will be important to substitute with conventional fuels. Reducing will be greater should there be a better share of fossil fuels in power mixing. If production is through renewable energies, the security of supply will be supplemented by hydrogen. That will reduce emissions of CO2 but is limited to the extent to which renewable sources can be important in power generation.
International economic impacts and competitiveness
The economic relevance of the transport sector is very high in regions like Europe and the US. It contributed to 4% to 6.5% of total employment and 6% to 10% of accrued production levels in 2002. In some regions in the world, the economic value of the transport sector is high. The production of vehicles contributes close to 40% of the figures. The competitiveness of the international market in the sector is a great contributor to the political value of some regions. With a focus on hydrogen, the necessary investment structure in hydrogen energy as a sector is more of the use of hydrogen as a source of power for vehicles. Should there be any importation of a hydrogen vehicle, it will be for the hydrogen system and the whole vehicle. It implies that the domestic vehicle industry structure would be among the key factors in the employment creation and improvement of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In Europe, the macroeconomic analysis showed that introducing hydrogen resulted in better long-term employment possibilities should there be the same level of competition experienced currently in the technologies not using hydrogen.
Higher levels of qualifications are needed when developing new technologies. Additionally, because of less automation, there should be more workers to prevent off-shore production. Generally, the effects on the growth of GDP from incorporating hydrogen into the energy sector are still minimal. Other than the small changes in the pattern of expenditure, introducing hydrogen just in a part of the energy sector shows how relatively small it affects GDP. However, the economic development generally improves because it is an additional investment, among others. Several reasons can be attributed to the increase. First, more investment in hydrogen production and infrastructure for fuelling together with more renewable energy capacities was needed to produce the hydrogen, funded by revenues generated in selling hydrogen as a fuel. Secondly, the wider effects as a result of the additional investment economically would be felt. The effects include increased income and employment, increasing the GDP, leading to more demand and further investment in the second round. Importantly, the analysis of the economy should be on the assumption that after the former support period, the technologies of hydrogen production should have more benefits than other conventional technologies. Additionally, the conclusions above assume that no shifts are there in the imports and exports. For example, there is no shift in the share of the market enjoyed by fuel-powered vehicles for the car manufacturers in Europe currently for conventional vehicles.
RECOMMENDATIONS
The way the H2 supply foundation would become and the appearance relies massively on homeland-particular terms like the presence of biofuels (like sustainable energies), demography, environmental reasons, and program upholds, which should be checked on a homeland-by homeland basis. However, prompted by the H2 configuration study issued in the input analysis, it is practicable to derive strong approach and cross-country-wide commonalities for the intro of hydrogen in the transport department. For the H2 prelude, two wide categories are differentiated: the development of the infrastructure stage (2015–2030) and the dispersion of the hydrogen gas stage from2030 to 2050. The previous can be advanced sub branched to an immediate enforcement stage from 2015 till 2020 and the evolution stage (2020–2030). The outline of results generally indicates the largest disparity at the evolution stage, when the first infrastructure is being made, but tend to come together at a later age. H2 consumption will escape mainly in highly populated areas with conducive support action and, at the transformation phase s, will gradually broaden externally into remote areas. As buses and groups of vehicles, for example, carrier vans, work limitedly to a vast extent, momentarily, normal pathways and go back to the main station for refueling and checkup, they are perfect choice applicants for the gas at the immediate enactment stage for they are not requiring a massive network of restocking depots. vehicles using hydrogen ICE and bi-energy transformation are essential at the initial stage. Also, they prevent the need to cover a wide region of refueling depot in place right from the start. Robust action gauges, like a non-discharge decree or expense impulse, are important to boost the immediate approval of hydrogen vehicles. The prologue of hydrogen fuel design is greatly finished at first through the distributed H2 generation, primarily on-scene at the fueling depot. It is the best economic move, for it prevents the development of a vast and expensive transport and diffusion framework that goes along with the main construction.it can be suspended until the hydrogen market is well-vast. At the evolution stage, a diffused creation scheme can be positioned quickly as the H2 market grows, thus increasing hydrogen production to grow at a reasonably paired step to the H2 requirement. This style provides the merchandise era to grow and wipes the risks for shareholders, as it prevents regulating vast capital in underutilized extensive creation and dispersion building. However, the development of the H2 market is still unknown. The approved technology is small-scale fossil fuel retransformation (utilizing current fossil fuel pipeline connections), adhered to a relatively small degree by gasifier of biofuel on-scene electrolysis (from grid electricity, wind, solar energy), and outgrowth H2. On-scene, this gas creation at the fueling depot is the choice initial enforcement stage (initial decade) and regions where the appeal is very economical for basic schemes (incoming age). The on-scene outcome is less recognized once a spread infrastructure has steadily been constructed. H2 demand has increased tremendously, and there is a current toward the main outcome in later stages. However, in isolated places with a high fuel demand, limited fuel resources are expected to be exploited by mass H2 creation to encounter their fuel transfer requirement. Due to the main on-scene outcome, there is a mini requirement for hydrogen to be transferred in the initial decade. If it occurs, it is due to the cryogenic liquid and compressed gaseous caravan under distinct fate. Cryogenic liquid has an essential function at the evolution stage till 2030 and in surrounding obscure places, like along motorways or in isolated regions. A pipeline connection is established in this era, and pipelines have subdued H2 transmission to the dispersion stage after 2030. Transfer choices are exhibited to a lot of susceptibility such as area, capacities, fueling depot utilization, the requirement for cryogenic liquid, cost of energy, the mass of fueling stations in an area) and there is no ‘‘eventually great plan’’ as each of the choices can function under certain terms. The length to be covered has a robust effect on the cost of transfer that affect the sum contribution price of H2 to a much greater level than the current report of liquid energy. Movement is expensive, and H2 sought to be manufactured near its users’ region. The basic expansion dream is to reduce the estimated H2 transmission length coverage through a perfectly -organized mentioning of the manufacturing industry. expected H2 amount prices are highly sensitive to the underlying hypothesis on the biofuels cost laborer price; doubts, therefore, increase importantly with extended-term protrusion. As delegates for their homeland, about 12–14 ct/kW h (4–4.6 $/kg), the concrete H2 amount costs in the initial stage are high mainly to the expected over volume of the supply and restocking configuration and the greater first costs for new technologies because of the initial stage of technology learning. Around 2030, H2 prices range from 10 to 16 ct/kW h (3.6–5.3 $/kg) in European Union and North America regions, basically relying on biofuel. In the extended period till 2050, H2 amount costs balance around this stage, but with an uppermost current mainly the hypothesized increase in fuel prices and Carbon IV oxide certificate prices. Also, while fossil H2 price will increase relevantly with the expected rise in nonrenewable expenditure on fuel, price for inexhaustible H2 will decline, ultimately to experience no loss. With a share of 60–80%, H2 creation overpowers the sum of supply costs. The investment of restocking adds up about10%; the transmit and liquefaction carry the rest of the percentage. At these supply costs, H2 becomes demanding in the long run at crude oil costs above 80–100 $ per cylinder (no fines, vehicle costs added). The concrete installation for enacting a set of H2 supply framework (generation industry, transmit configuration (pipelines), and restocking depot) vary between 150 and 190 M$/PJ until 2050 across the different situations, with a tendency towards greater figures in the next level mainly higher bio fueling prices.
Conclusion
As result of the numerous advantages of hydrogen , different countries have put strategies in place to meet a hydrogen energy economy by 2050 . This project has presented some of the forecasted energy demands of the Netherlands, China and Australia. Moreover, estimations of hydrogen energy usage versus other sources of energy as a well as hydrogen technology are have been presented in the paper. For instance a projection of vehicle sales in California by 2050 and a forecasted global fuel demand by 2050 is provided. Based on this estimates, possible challenges and opportunities in the future of hydrogen storage, its impact on the electricity sector and the effect of international economy and competitiveness on hydrogen as a source of energy are discussed in detail. Possible solutions, suggestions and recommendations are also provided to some of these challenges.
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